The hottest natural gas consumption continued to i

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Natural gas consumption continued to increase, and domestic natural gas production maintained a high growth rate

in September 2018, China's apparent natural gas consumption was 22.42 billion cubic meters, an increase of 17.7% year-on-year; In August, China's apparent consumption of natural gas totaled 2017 billion cubic meters, with a year-on-year increase of 18.20%. Natural gas consumption continued to maintain a high-speed growth. In September, China's natural gas output was 12.2 billion cubic meters, an increase of 8.5% year-on-year. The third quarter is often the off-season of China's natural gas demand, and some gas fields will reduce production capacity and reduce production. However, natural gas demand showed an obvious off-season situation in the third quarter of this year, mainly due to the rapid year-on-year growth of natural gas consumption and the increase of gas storage in gas reservoirs, so the upstream gas source basically did not reduce production capacity, resulting in the year-on-year growth of China's natural gas production in the third quarter is significantly higher than that in the first and second quarters

in the month, natural gas imports increased by 37.60% year-on-year, and LNG imports increased by 44.9%

in the month, China imported about 64.78 million tons of natural gas, an increase of 37.60% year-on-year. Among them, liquefied natural gas (LNG) was about 36.98 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 44.9%, accounting for 57.09% of the total import volume; Pipeline natural gas (PNG) was about 27.8 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 21.76%, accounting for 42.91% of the total imports. On a monthly basis, China's dependence on imports of natural gas reached about 43%. In September, the average import price of natural gas in China was 403.43 US dollars/ton. In September, the average import price of natural gas was 431.63 US dollars/ton, an increase of 28.55% over the same period last year and 0.46% over August. Including the increase in natural gas unit price of some renewable raw material exports, we believe that it is mainly due to the rise in international crude oil prices and the weak demand for natural gas in East Asia in the off-season

in September, the trading volume of Shanghai oil and gas trading center continued to rise month on month

in September 2018, the orders of Shanghai oil and gas trading extruder enterprises will rebound significantly, with a total of 368800 tons of liquefied natural gas and 3.333 billion cubic meters of pipeline natural gas traded in the center. In terms of transaction price, the average unit price of LNG in September 2018 was 3.26 yuan/cubic meter, up 0.3% month on month; The average transaction unit price of PNG was 2.09 yuan/cubic meter, up 3% month on month

according to the analysis of supply guarantee situation in December 2018, the probable rate of gas shortage will no longer appear

China will have a peak of gas consumption in December, and it is expected that China's natural gas demand will reach 30.2 billion cubic meters in December 2018, with a year-on-year increase of 17%; The total supply capacity is about 28.7 billion cubic meters, and the supply gap is about 1.6 billion cubic meters. In December this year, the supply of natural gas in China will still fall short of demand. However, from the perspective of the actual situation, we believe that there will be no "gas shortage" this year, as in 17 years. There are three reasons: there are system failures (1) PetroChina has curbed some demand by raising prices. When gas supply is tight, PetroChina will actively reduce the volume of downstream gas users, and LNG liquefaction plants, chemical enterprises and other large gas users will be restricted; (2) The government requires gas supply enterprises to be prepared to fully guarantee the gas consumption of residents and public welfare institutions. After giving priority to the gas consumption of residents, chengran will no longer supply gas to industry and commerce at no cost. (3) The supply capacity of North China is expected to increase by 82.5 million m3/day, while the demand growth is expected to be 60-80 million m3/day. Supply can cover this year's increment and reduce last year's gas supply gap. Under the condition of reasonable demand reduction, the tension between supply and demand in North China is expected to be significantly eased

risk tips: industry policy risks; Risk of adjustment of gas distribution price and connection fee; The adjustment of gas selling price is less than expected; Natural gas consumption is less than expected

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